Martinsville Bulletin, Inc.
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Sunday, October 11, 2009
By DEBBIE HALL AND MICKEY POWELL - Bulletin Staff Writers
A potential matchup of Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt versus Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello for the 5th District congressional seat could be one of the most closely watched races in the 2010 election, according to political analysts and others.
“It’s challenging for any candidate to run against an incumbent,” said Andy Seré, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “But it certainly would be a hard fought race.”
The 2008 race between Perriello, who was a political newcomer at the time, and six-term Republican incumbent Virgil Goode Jr. was “the closest race in the entire country last year,” noted Isaac Wood, director of communications at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Perriello, of Albemarle County, won that race with 727 more votes than Goode, a Republican from Rocky Mount.
At the time, political analyst Larry Sabato, also of the Center for Politics at U.Va., predicted Goode would win.
But with Hurt, the race would be too close to call right now, Wood said.
Goode said Friday he would support a “good conservative” candidate if one is nominated by the party. While Hurt is a conservative candidate, Goode said, “we have several conservatives running” for the party’s nomination.
Other Republicans whose names have surfaced as possible candidates are Albemarle County Supervisor Kenneth C. Boyd; Michael McPadden, a commercial pilot from North Garden; Fluvanna County biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton; Bradley Rees, a Bedford County factory worker and FairTax activist; and Ivy resident and private real estate investor Laurence Verga.
Wood said Hurt is considered an “A-list challenger.”
“It’s a toss-up race. It’s always hard to bet against an incumbent,” Wood said. “But certainly if any district in the country will be tough for an incumbent to win, this district certainly would be at the top of that list.”
Seré said that after the Nov. 3 election, local Republican unit chairmen in the 5th District will decide how to select their nominee for the district seat. It either will be through a primary in June or a political convention in late spring or early summer, he said.
Still, “we certainly believe Robert Hurt is an excellent candidate who brings a lot of (political) strength to the table,” including strong conservative values and a reputation for helping to bring new jobs to Southside, said Seré.
The fact that Hurt and Perriello are from two extreme parts of the district also would add interest to next year’s election, Wood said.
In the predominantly rural Martinsville and Danville areas, “everyone knows Robert Hurt, but he is not as well known in Charlottesville,” which is a more urban area, said Wood. Perriello, on the other hand, is well-known there.
The district also is big, Wood noted.
According to online information, it is bigger than New Jersey and covers more than 8,922 square miles.
“It is not a particularly homogenous district” because it encompasses different people and different cultures, Wood said.
The successful candidate will need to connect with every voter, he said.
Wood said the amount of media attention Perriello receives as a congressman gives him an edge.
However, it “is definitely a conservative leaning district” that is more Republican than Democrat, Wood said.
Seré thinks Hurt would do well in the Charlottesville area.
“At the end of the day,” he said, “everyone in the 5th District cares about having someone to represent them who can create jobs” in the district.
Perriello, said Seré, voted for a federal stimulus package “that has failed to produce” any strong economic improvements yet, and he supports “cap and trade” — emissions control — legislation that many people think ultimately will lead to job losses.
Tucker Watkins, 5th District Republican chairman, said Hurt’s name recognition from serving “a pretty good piece of the district” likely is higher than the other five candidates.
With Hurt’s announcement last week, “it's a six-way fight,” Watkins said.
Barnie Day, a Patrick County Democrat and former delegate, said the 2010 race “will be a classic.”
Perriello is “one of the hardest working” members of Congress, Day said. He “is finishing up a tremendous first term” during which Perriello has created a national profile, Day added.
Hurt also is a “good guy. He's hardworking and he will raise a ton of money,” Day said. Hurt “will campaign hard.”
Day said he believes President Obama’s agenda will be a factor in the race, and he cited concerns such as health care, cap and trade and other issues.
It will be a challenge for Perriello to retain the post, he speculated.
“Every first term” member of Congress is vulnerable, Day said. But Perriello has worn out “probably 10 sets of shoes” while working in the district. “He's worked hard and I think he deserves to be re-elected.”
Perriello on Friday said “I haven’t really thought about” the possibility of facing Hurt at the polls in November 2010.
“I’m just trying to do my job” in Congress right now, he said. |
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